Article content
Early tracking puts the 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment near 3.8%, or roughly $70 a month for a typical retired worker. That's the number making headlines this week. What gets less attention is what happens right after that raise gets calculated: Medicare's Part B premium, which is usually deducted straight from your Social Security check, is also going up for 2027, and nobody knows by how much yet.
Neither number is final. The Social Security Administration announces the real COLA in October, and Medicare's Part B premium is typically announced in November. Until then, treat both figures as estimates and build a rough sense of your real net increase, the amount left after Medicare takes its share.
Choose your next move
Which Medicare setup fits you?
This changes how directly the premium increase affects your check.
Your Part B premium is deducted directly from your Social Security check most months.
Interactive toolWrite your questions down before the real numbers landKeep a running list for your Original Medicare with Part B so you're ready once the October and November announcements post.Show the toolHide the tool
Prepare short, specific Medicare or Social Security questions before your next call.
Why the Premium Comes Out First
For most people enrolled in Part B, the premium is withheld directly from the Social Security deposit before it ever reaches your bank account. So when both numbers move in the same year, the Part B increase effectively comes off the top of your raise, not on top of it separately.
A federal rule called the hold harmless provision protects most current beneficiaries from having their check shrink below last year's amount because of a Part B increase. It does not guarantee any real increase, though. If the premium rises close to what the COLA adds, your check can end up nearly flat even in a year with a headline raise.
ChecklistWatch for these once the numbers postA few specific checks beat a general sense that things went up.Show the checklistHide the checklist
0 of 3 done.
Estimate Your Real Net Increase
Use the two numbers being reported this week as a starting point: a roughly $70 monthly COLA increase and an unknown Part B premium increase. Enter your own estimate for each below and adjust them as better numbers come out over the next few months.
Quick calculator
Rough out what you'll actually keep
Both fields are early estimates. Update them once your real notices arrive.
Estimated net monthly increase: $50 • Essentials use 29% of income.
If this number is close to zero or negative, the Part B increase is likely absorbing most or all of your raise this year.
When You'll Know the Real Numbers
The two announcements land about a month apart, and your own official notice comes after both. Mark these dates so you're not guessing when it matters.
TimelineThe order the real numbers arriveUpdate your calculator estimate above as each one posts.Show the timelineHide the timeline
This replaces the early estimate with the confirmed percentage.
Compare it to this year's premium to see the real increase.
SSA mails or posts online your specific new monthly amount for January.
Check your first January deposit against what your notice said to expect.
For a fuller look at how the early COLA estimate affects your broader budget, read The 2027 Social Security COLA Guess Just Dropped: Here's What To Do With It. If drug plan costs are also part of your budget picture, read Medicare Part D Premiums Are Rising for 2027.
Save your plan
Save your estimate now and update it as the real numbers post.
Common questions
Why doesn't a Social Security COLA raise feel like a full raise?
For most people enrolled in Medicare Part B, the premium is deducted directly from the Social Security deposit before it reaches your bank account. When the Part B premium rises in the same year as a COLA increase, the premium increase effectively comes off the top of the raise, so the net increase in your deposit can be much smaller than the headline COLA percentage.
What is the hold harmless provision?
It's a federal rule that protects most current Social Security beneficiaries from having their check shrink below the prior year's amount because of a Part B premium increase. It does not guarantee any real increase. If the premium rises close to what the COLA adds, your check can end up nearly flat even in a year with a headline raise.
When will I know my actual 2027 Social Security and Medicare numbers?
The Social Security Administration typically announces the official COLA in October, and CMS announces the Medicare Part B premium in November. Your personal benefit notice, showing your specific new monthly amount, arrives in December, ahead of the change taking effect in January.
Does the Medicare Part B premium always come out of my Social Security check?
For most people enrolled in both programs, yes, it's deducted automatically each month. If you pay a Medigap premium separately, or if your Medicare Advantage plan charges an additional premium, those amounts are usually billed separately rather than withheld from your Social Security deposit.
